The five seats where the SP has announced its candidates are Dhule City, Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhiwandi East, Bhiwandi West and Malegaon Central.

Though the SP is staking its claim on 12 seats citing different reasons, the party had contested only four of these seats in 2019 (winning two), five in 2014 (winning one) and six in 2009 (winning three). In 2009, the SP had additionally won the Nawapur ST-reserved seat. The SP has been contesting fewer seats over the course of the past three polls, from 31 in 2009 to 22 in 2014 to just seven in 2019.

Among the 12 seats the SP has demanded, Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar and Bhiwandi East are priorities for the party given that it has sitting MLAs in both. While Azmi is the three-term MLA from Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, the SP’s Rais Shaikh had won Bhiwandi East in 2019 by a thin margin of 1,314 votes to defeat the undivided Shiv Sena and Congress. However, SP had finished as the runner-up in Bhiwandi East in 2014, five years after it won the seat in 2009 with Azmi as the candidate. Though the SP had not contested Bhiwandi West in 2019 and 2014, it is demanding the seat since it had won it in 2009.

The party also wants the Muslim-dominated Malegaon Central and Dhule City, where the sitting MLAs belong to the AIMIM. The party claims to have more influence than the AIMIM among Muslims in these seats and believes it can win them with the support of the Congress, NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT).

Among the other 12 seats on the SP’s list is Byculla, where the sitting MLA is from Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. The SP has demanded the seat citing its strong presence on the ground, its cadre and network, and the seat’s large minority population. The SP last contested this seat in 2009, when the party placed sixth with a 3.19% vote share. Similarly in Anushakti Nagar, which the undivided NCP had won in 2019, the SP claims its strong presence on the ground and the large minority population combined with anti-incumbency would favour the party, particularly given that the seat is adjacent to the party’s “stronghold” in Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar. However, the SP has not contested Anushakti Nagar in the last three polls.

Though the SP had not contested Versova in 2019, and had finished seventh in 2014 and third in 2009, the party has demanded the seat citing its large minority population comprising both Muslims and Christians. The BJP won Versova in the last two elections.

The SP has similarly demanded Raver and Amravati, held by the Congress, and Karnaja, held by the BJP, claiming that their large minority populations and strong anti-incumbency would favour the party. The SP did not contest any of these seats in the last three elections.

The party, however, did not offer any specific reasons while demanding Aurangabad East, where the SP finished behind the BJP winner and AIMIM runner-up with just 2.84% of the vote share.

In 2019, the SP had contested only four of the 12 seats it is now demanding, and won two. Across the state, it had contested seven total seats and got a 10.77% vote share, with five candidates losing their deposits..

In 2014, the SP had contested five of the 12 seats, winning in just Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar. However, the party had contested a total 22 seats across the state, but managed a vote share of just 2.54% with 21 candidates losing their deposits.

The SP’s best performance in recent elections came in 2009, when it won four of the 31 seats it contested. It won three seats – Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhiwandi East and Bhiwandi West – from the six it contested among the 12 seats it is now demanding.

SP had performed better in 2009 when it had won four seats while contesting 31 seats in the state. While contesting six and winning three seats (Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhiwandi East and Bhiwandi West) from these 12 constituencies demanded for upcoming polls, the party had won another ST-reserved Nawapur seat. Party had got 7.71 per cent votes in these 31 seats and 25 candidates had lost their deposits.

The SP’s move to declare candidates before the MVA appears to be a pressure tactic to get a share in the alliance. An SP leader said the party has observed in the past that the Congress- and NCP-led alliances had begun negotiations with SP at the last minute, only to backtrack and leave the SP in the lurch without any candidates.

For instance, the leader added, the SP had asked for seven seats in the 2019 Assembly polls, but the then Congress-NCP alliance only offered three. “Literally 30 minutes before the nomination filing ended, the Congress fielded their own candidate from Bhiwandi East (one of the seats the SP had demanded). Despite the Congress putting much energy and resources behind this candidate, the SP candidate won,” the leader said.

In the 2014 Assembly polls, the leader said, the late Congress leader Ahmad Patel had finalised an alliance with the SP, offering it seven seats. However, on deadline for nominations, Patel pulled out of the alliance claiming the Congress’s central leadership had refused it.