The latest jolt came earlier this year when the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) working president and CM Hemant Soren resigned ahead of his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate on corruption charges. Hemant was briefly replaced by Champai Soren, a veteran politician and close aide of party patriarch Shibu Soren. But after Hemant returned to the CM’s chair following his release on bail, Champai rebelled and later quit to join the BJP.

The 2014 polls

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when Narendra Modi first came to power riding a wave, the BJP won 12 of the 14 seats it contested on its own, with 40.7% of the vote share. The Opposition alliance of the Congress, JMM and Lalu Prasad-led RJD together won all of two seats and 24.6% of the vote share. As the senior alliance partner, the Congress contested nine seats, the JMM four and the RJD one.

Assembly polls in Jharkhand

Two regional players, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) and the ex-BJP CM Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) (JVM), contested independently at the time and won no seats, but with 3.8% and 12.3% of the vote share, respectively.

Despite being part of a coalition government from 2013 to 2014, the JMM, Congress and RJD failed to agree on an alliance for the ensuing 2014 Assembly polls. The BJP too failed to form a pre-poll alliance despite talks with the AJSU.

Showing a decline from its complete dominance in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 37 seats in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly. It then tied up with the JVM, which won eight seats and a substantial 9.99% vote share, with their combined tally of 45 MLAs comprising a majority.

The BJP chose Raghubar Das as Jharkhand’s first non-tribal CM. He then went on to lead the state’s first government that completed a full term.

In 2015, a year after the elections, six of the JVM’s MLAs formally joined the BJP, stating that the legislative party had merged.

The JMM came second in the 2014 Assembly polls, winning 19 seats and 20.4% of the votes. The Congress-RJD alliance managed just six seats, and 13.6% of the vote share, with the Congress winning all of the grouping’s seats.

The 2019 polls

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, fighting with the AJSU as an ally, the BJP contested 13 of the total 14 seats and won 11, getting 51.6% of the vote share. The AJSU won the only seat it contested.

Lok Sabha polls in Jharkhand

The Opposition alliance, which included the Congress, JMM, RJD and the JVM (Prajatantrik), a breakaway faction of the BJP, managed a combined vote share of 35%, but could win only two seats, one each for the Congress and JMM. The Congress contested the most seats in this grouping at seven, followed by the JMM at four, and the RJD and JVM at two each. One seat, Chatra, was contested by both the RJD and Congress.

But the 2019 Assembly polls saw the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance leave the NDA behind, by getting 47 seats, above the 41-seat majority mark, and 35.4% of the vote share. Hemant Soren became the CM for the second time and was set to be only the second CM to complete a full term until his arrest earlier this year.

The BJP, which contested the 2019 state polls alone after failing to reach an agreement with the AJSU, won 25 seats and 33.4% of the vote share.

The JMM was the single-largest party, with 30 seats, followed by the BJP and Congress at 16. While the AJSU won 8.1% of the votes and the JVM 5.5%, the parties managed two and three seats, respectively. By 2020, Marandi’s JVM, founded in 2006 as a BJP splinter group, re-merged with the BJP.

In September 2022, amid corruption allegations from the BJP, investigations by the CBI and ED, and fears of a possible disqualification, Soren called for a trust vote, which he won comfortably, with 48 MLAs voting in his favour. The Opposition BJP and AJSU boycotted the proceedings.

The 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Though they recorded an improvement from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, INDIA bloc parties in Jharkhand remained behind the NDA. The BJP won eight seats from a 44.6% vote share and its ally AJSU won one seat from a 2.62% vote share. The INDIA bloc combined won just five seats – three by the JMM and two by the Congress with votes shares of 14.6% and 19.19%, respectively.

However, mapping the Lok Sabha results onto the state’s Assembly segments shows that the NDA was ahead in 49 – giving them a clear majority in the House. The BJP alone led in 46 Assembly segments, again ahead of the majority mark of 41.

The JMM led in 14 Assembly segments and the Congress in 15, putting the INDIA bloc’s total at 29. Independents led in two other Assembly segments and the BSP in one.