All the 32 parties which supported the move before the panel were either BJP allies, or friendly towards the party. Since then, the BJD has turned against the BJP. Of the 15 who opposed the move before the panel, five are parties outside the NDA umbrella which are in power in states, including the Congress.

Before simultaneous polls are implemented, the Kovind panel suggested several constitutional amendments that will have to be cleared by Parliament, while the creation of a unified electoral roll will require ratification from a majority of the state legislatures.

Article 368(2) on amending the Constitution states, “An amendment of this Constitution may be initiated only by the introduction of a Bill for the purpose in either House of Parliament, and when the Bill is passed in each House by a majority of the total membership of that House and by a majority of not less than two-thirds of the members of that House present and voting, it shall be presented to the President who shall give his assent to the Bill and thereupon the Constitution shall stand amended in accordance with the terms of the Bill.”

After the recent Lok Sabha polls, the parties that supported simultaneous elections before the Kovind panel account for 271 MPs in the Lok Sabha (including 240 from the BJP) – just one short of a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. The NDA, including the TDP and other parties who neither supported or opposed simultaneous polls, has a Lok Sabha strength of 293 MPs.

The government will require 362 votes, or two-thirds majority, in the Lok Sabha if it turns out in full strength, while the total strength of the NDA is just 293. Only if 439 members are present and voting in the Lok Sabha on the voting day – and the remaining more than 100 abstain – will the Bill garner a two-thirds majority with the NDA’s strength of 293, unless the government can convince non-NDA parties to back it.

This means that unless it can get Opposition parties on board in a significant way, the constitutional amendment Bill can fall in the Lower House. While the government is somewhat better placed in the Rajya Sabha, the numbers are not comfortable enough to be complacent. That apart, the Bill must get passed in both Houses with a special majority for the constitutional amendment to be successful.

The combined strength in Parliament of the 15 parties that opposed simultaneous polls in the Kovind panel stands at 205 MPs. Of this, the INDIA bloc members account for 203 MPs. Together, INDIA bloc, including those parties which did not make a submission before the Kovind panel, account for 234 MPs in the Lok Sabha.

In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA has 115 MPs, excluding the six nominated members with whom the ruling alliance has 121 MPs, and the INDIA bloc 85 MPs. If all members of the 250 members of the Rajya Sabha are present, a simple majority would be 125 and two-thirds would be 164 MPs. Currently, there are 234 Rajya Sabha MPs.

In all, while 27 parties which are part of the NDA are in support of ‘One Nation, One Election’, including the TDP, only the Naga People’s Front (NPF) is opposed. All the 10 INDIA bloc parties who responded to the panel opposed the move. Of the parties not attached to any of the two fronts, six are in favour, and four against.

Only two of the 32 parties in support are national parties – the BJP and the Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party (NPP), which is part of the BJP-led NDA and in power in Meghalaya.

The 15 parties that were opposed include the remaining four national parties recognised by the Election Commission – the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and CPI(M). Of these 15, the Congress, AAP, DMK, Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the CPI(M) are in power in states; the others include the AIUDF, AIMIM, CPI, NPF, Samajwadi Party (SP), the MDMK and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi of Tamil Nadu, the CPI(M-L), and Social Democratic Party of India. The BSP, however, which now has just one MP in the Rajya Sabha, has since changed its stance to support the move.

Apart from the BJP and NPP, the 32 parties which supported simultaneous elections include BJP allies All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU), Apna Dal (Soneylal), Asom Gana Parishad, Lok Janshakti Party (R), National Democratic Progressive Party (of Nagaland), Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (in power in Assam), Mizo National Front and United People’s Party Liberal of Assam; JD(U), which recently returned to the NDA fold; Shiv Sena (a faction of which is with the NDA).

The Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which had been on “friendly terms” with the BJP but is now the saffron party’s primary opposition in Odisha after the Assembly polls this year, also supported the proposal. Former BJP allies Akali Dal and AIADMK also favoured ‘One Nation, One Election’.

The remaining 15 of the 32 parties in support are small, unrecognised parties.

The parties which did not respond to the panel were the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (which was in power till recently in Telangana), IUML, National Conference, new BJP ally JD(S), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (the ruling party in Jharkhand), Kerala Congress (M), NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), RJD, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), YSRCP; TDP and RLD (both of which are BJP allies now, the former displaced the YSRCP as the ruling party in Andhra Pradesh recently); Shiromani Akali Dal (Mann); Rashtriya Loktantrik Party; and Sikkim Democratic Front.

The high-level panel on simultaneous elections sought opinion from 62 political parties in all, of which 47 sent their replies, 15 did not respond, while voluntary responses came from others. Eighteen parties also held in-person interaction with the panel.