The Union Cabinet on Saturday approved the Unified Pension Scheme (UPS), which assures 50% of the average salary drawn over the last 12 months of Central government employees’ service as pension. The Opposition has dubbed it a reaction to its campaign tapping successfully into the unhappiness of government employees over the National Pension Scheme (NPS), while the government has called the UPS a better version of the NPS.
However, the BJP has been cognizant of the anger among government employees, who have been the party’s supporters, over the NPS. Speaking to The Indian Express, a senior BJP leader said this anger was one of the reasons that pushed government employees towards the Opposition. “We hope the UPS will pacify them.”
In the four states that are going to elections this year, including Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir for which polls have been announced, and Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the BJP’s share in the total postal ballots cast fell between the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Though the postal ballot facility is also provided to senior citizens and persons with disabilities, a substantial number of voters are government servants on election duty or employed in essential services or posted out of place where they are registered as voters, including the defence forces.
Haryana
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had swept Haryana, winning all its 10 parliamentary seats. Of the total 53,689 postal ballots in the state, the BJP had got an overwhelming 74%, while the Congress got only 16%.
But in the recent Lok Sabha polls, when the Congress wrested five seats from the BJP, it also got a bigger share of the postal ballots. Of the total 51,237 postal ballots cast in the 2024 general elections in Haryana, the BJP got 44.26%, while the Congress share more than tripled, to 48.49%.
Haryana is scheduled to vote on October 1.
Jammu and Kashmir
In J&K, which is scheduled to vote in three phases, on September 18, September 25 and October 1, the BJP again saw a sharp drop in postal ballots between the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 2024. Of the total 53,737 postal ballots cast in 2019, the BJP, on the rise as a major player in the erstwhile state, had won as much as 69%, with the Congress-National Conference (NC) combine managing a total of 16%.
That year, the BJP had won the two Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and the Ladakh seat, while the NC had won all three seats in Kashmir.
This year, of the total 42,867 postal ballots cast in J&K (minus Ladakh now), the Congress-NC alliance together got 38.64%, while the BJP was reduced to 33.26%.
The BJP retained its two Jammu Lok Sabha seats in 2024, while the NC dropped to two, with an Independent winning the third Kashmir seat.
Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, where crucial Assembly elections are due later this year, the BJP and then undivided Shiv Sena together won 54.8% of the total 2.15 lakh postal ballots cast in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The alliance between the Congress and the then undivided Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) managed only 30.15% of the postal ballots.
In terms of Lok Sabha seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 of the state’s total 48, while Congress-NCP got only five.
However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when a total 2.09 lakh postal ballots were polled in the state, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) trumped the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The BJP along with the Shiv Sena and NCP factions allied with it together got 39% of the postal ballots, while the alliance between the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP(SP) collectively got 43.72%.
The MVA won 30 Lok Sabha seats in all, with the Mahayuti falling significantly to 17 constituencies.
Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, also scheduled to hold Assembly polls later this year, the BJP and its ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) won a combined 57% of the total 38,553 postal ballots cast in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress-led alliance, comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), RJD and CPI(ML), polled 32.49% of the postal ballots.
The NDA won 12 Lok Sabha seats of the 14 in Jharkhand, and the Opposition won the remaining two.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw a reversal in the postal ballots. Of the total 1.69 lakh cast in Haryana, the Congress-led alliance secured 47%, while the BJP-led group won 42%.
How the parties see it
The senior BJP leader quoted above said: “Government employees are an educated class of voters and they have largely supported the BJP in the past. But they shifted towards the Opposition in recent times because of its promise to restore the Old Pension Scheme. Their support for the BJP also weakened due to BJP governments demanding greater accountability from government employees in a bid to bring transparency in the system.”
Congress spokesperson Anshul Avijit said the new UPS system is unlikely to help the BJP in the Assembly polls. “Every vote matters. But postal ballots make the difference when there is a close contest,” he said.
In the 2022 Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party, which did far better in the state compared to 2017, questioned the extent of its loss to the BJP in terms of seats given that the SP-led alliance secured 2.25 lakh postal ballots in the polling compared to the BJP-led alliance’s 1.48 lakh. The BJP-led NDA won 273 seats in the 403-member House, against the SP-led alliance’s 125.
SP president Akhilesh Yadav claimed that the SP alliance’s “51.5% votes in the postal ballots” should have translated to 304 seats for the party.
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