Goodbye, Nikki. See you later, Dean. It’s down to President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, starting with Thursday night’s State of the Union address — the biggest chance Biden will get to impress voters before the Democratic National Convention in August.

Biden begins the heart of his re-election campaign trailing Trump in public polling by generally steady but not insurmountable margins. He has a tepid approval rating and a majority of voters questioning whether he is simply too old to be president. He’ll have other advantages, particularly financial. His campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and super PACs backing him have already committed more than $700 million to defeating Trump.

A good portion of the cash will go to the same cause. Biden is likely to commit a significant amount of time during the State of the Union to reminding voters — or perhaps convincing them — of what he’s actually done during his time in office, something his campaign and the White House have largely failed to do so far. It may be the central challenge facing Biden’s re-election campaign over the next eight months.

“The Biden administration has a really hard time breaking through, and it’s not for a lack of effort or trying,” said Danielle Deiseroth, the executive director of Data For Progress. “They’re sending the cabinet, they’re sending the president, out into the world, and folks are just not getting it.”

On Wednesday, Data For Progress released polling showing just how few voters give Biden credit for things he has unambiguously accomplished and which the voters themselves unambiguously support. While Biden and his administration have repeatedly discussed the $550 billion in additional infrastructure funding Congress passed under Biden’s watch in 2021, it has not reached voters. Only 41% of voters said Biden increased funding for infrastructure, while 42% said he had not.

For other accomplishments — bringing down crime rates, investing in health care, reducing the unemployment rate — the numbers were even worse. Even on abortion rights, arguably the central plank of Democratic messaging, Desieroth said many non-college-educated women did not yet blame Trump for overturning Roe v. Wade.

Democrats increasingly see a lack of recognition for Biden’s accomplishments, most of which are popular in public surveys, as the root of many of his problems. Young voters, for instance, often don’t know Biden passed major legislation on two of their top priorities, climate change and gun control. And some internal Democratic polling has suggested concerns about Biden’s age drop as voters learn more about his accomplishments, suggesting two of his biggest problems may be intrinsically linked.

“The concerns around his age are reinforced by the perception voters haven’t heard of anything he’s accomplished,” said Navin Nayak, the executive director of the Center for American Progress Action Fund. “And that feeds into the story that MAGA and Republicans want to tell, that he’s not able to do the job.”

Nayak said the problem is a reason for “optimism” for Biden: “That’s not reality. He’s had one of the most productive first terms of any president in the past 50 years.”

The White House has signaled that it plans to use the State of the Union to double down on some of Biden’s most popular accomplishments, including proposing further tax increases on the wealthiest Americans, raising the corporate tax rate to 21%, ridding corporations of the ability to use tax breaks to pay salaries of more than $1 million, and expanding his proposals to limit the cost of prescription drugs.

“President Biden has made clear who’s side he’s on,” Lael Brainerd, the director of the National Economic Council, said Wednesday night on a phone call with reporters. “Every day, we see him fighting for the middle class.”

There were also new proposals. Though details were scarce, White House aides indicated Biden would also roll out plans to expand the supply of housing and make it more affordable for families.

Trump, meanwhile, has promised to counterprogram the State of the Union as he looks to press his advantages over Biden on key issues, including the economy and immigration.

“I am pleased to inform you that tomorrow night we will be doing a LIVE, Play by Play, of Crooked Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address,” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. “I will correct, in rapid response, any and all inaccurate Statements, especially pertaining to the Border and his Weaponization of the DOJ, FBI, A.G.s, and District Attorneys, to go after his Political Opponent, ME (something never done before in this Country!).”

“We did this once before to tremendous success - Beating All Records,” he continued. “It is important for the Country to get the TRUTH!”

After the State of the Union, the Biden campaign plans a tour of swing states. The president is set to campaign in Pennsylvania and Georgia this weekend. This will be the start of a long effort to improve his political standing.

Deiseroth and Data for Progress originally ran the numbers on how many voters recognized Biden’s achievements six months ago, only to see the conflict in Gaza eat up most of the nation’s political attention. She said that Biden still has time to turn things around, but not that much more time.

“If I run this question again three months from now,” she said, “and I see the same result, I’m going to be marginally more freaked out.”