DAVENPORT, Iowa – With a second-place finish in Republicans’ first presidential contest of 2024 in sight, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley on Saturday night implored a crowd of supporters to brave subzero temperatures Monday and “set the tone” for the rest of America.

“You know you set the tone for where the rest of the country needs to go. You know what you need to do, and I know that you’ll do it,” she said.

Haley has been climbing in polls for weeks, and recently was just several points behind former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, which holds its primary eight days after Iowa’s caucuses. And Saturday night, the respected Des Moines Register poll showed that Haley had moved ahead of Florida Gov. Rom DeSantis in Iowa, with Trump slipping slightly but still with a large lead.

Haley supporters said they hoped a stronger than expected finish Monday – DeSantis had been ahead of Haley in Iowa for most of last year – could lead to outright wins in New Hampshire and beyond.

“I think a strong second would be a very good result for her,” said Chris Cournoyer, an Iowa state senator who introduced Haley Saturday. “And I think we’re going to surprise some people on caucus night because I have so many independents and Democrats that have told me that they’re going to caucus for her Monday night.”

Despite near-zero temperatures, a frigid wind and many smaller roads still covered with snow from Friday’s blizzard, Haley was able to pull some 100 attendees into the Thunder Bay Grille just south of Interstate 80. She delivered her now-familiar stump speech for about 25 minutes – incorporating many of the lines she has used in televised debates – and then spent another 25 minutes posing for photos and talking to voters individually.

James Mercer, a semi-retired 76-year-old car dealer and two-time Trump voter, said he is convinced that Haley is the one Republican still running who can actually defeat Democratic President Joe Biden in November. “Because she’s going to resonate with women,” he said. “And I want someone who’s going to win.”

Haley was among all but two of the eight Republican hopefuls on the first debate stage five months ago who said they would still support Trump as the nominee even if he were a convicted felon by then from one or more of the four criminal prosecutions he is facing. This week, though, she took a new tack regarding her former boss.

At a one-on-one debate against DeSantis sponsored by CNN, Haley said that, despite Trump’s claims, Jan. 6, 2021, was a “terrible” day and Trump would now have “to answer for it.”

That approach may turn off voters who believe Trump did nothing wrong, but has won over others, including Tiffany Lensch, a banker from nearby Bettendorf, who said Trump’s behavior leading up to and on Jan. 6 was the last straw for her. “I think that was the breaking point for me,” she said. “I’m not a fan of Trump.”

Lensch said she had seen Haley in person previously when she visited Bettendorf and was impressed enough to come out despite the miserable weather to hear her again. “I really like her message,” she said.

Haley began her campaign last February, becoming the first major candidate to declare after Trump, who jumped into the race just weeks after the election-denying candidates he pushed in the 2022 midterms all flopped.

But she languished in the low single digits in polling for most of the spring and summer, leading to speculation her campaign would run out of money before the end of the year. Her fortunes, though, began improving with strong performances in the Republican National Committee’s series of debates that began in August.

And as DeSantis’s poll numbers began to fall, she began to win over influential donors who had originally backed him as the best potential challenger against Trump.

HuffPost reporter Liz Skalka contributed.