In MP, the BJP came back to power in the Assembly election held a few months ago, and though the Congress vote share came down only marginally, from 40.89 per cent in 2018 to 40.45 per cent in 2023, the BJP made a large gain of 7.6 per cent. The difference between the two parties in the Lok Sabha arena of 2019 — the distance the Congress needs to cover this time — is a stunning 23.5 per cent.

Unlike in neighbouring Gujarat, however, where Congress is widely seen to have lost its fighting spirit, Congress is still in a position, at least in some constituencies, to reap popular discontents in MP. Apart from the Muslim mohallas, it is a visible presence in its tribal pockets and Dalit bastis — both the SC and ST populations are sizeable in MP, at 16 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.

But unlike in UP, the state it shares the longest border with, third parties have been unable to hold up their end in MP — the BSP’s vote share dipped from a high of 5.85 per cent in 2009, with one seat, to less than 2.38 per cent in 2019 — pushing up the threshold for victory. Like in UP, the BJP has made considerable inroads in erstwhile Congress bastions of SCs and STs, apart from winning over large sections of the OBCs.

If Congress sounded unconvinced about its own possibilities in Ujjain, come to Guna for a sense of the odds stacked against it — not without its own complicity.

Here, Congress was stripped of local organisational and political leadership after the exit of Jyotiraditya Scindia in 2019 and his crossing over to the BJP. “Madhavrao Scindia was Guna MP for 13 years, Jyotiraditya for 17 years… When Jyotiraditya left, the MLA from here went with him, and a zilla adhyaksh, a former zilla panchayat adhyaksh, janpad adhyaksh, nagarpalika adhyaksh… jitne bhi pad hote hain shasan ke aur jan pratinidhi (all former and current office bearers in local administration and party) went with him”, says Harishankar Vijavargiya, general secretary, MPCC.

The crossover of Congressmen and women to the BJP is a state-wide phenomenon, but it is what the Congress did after the Scindia setback in Guna that is telling: It put up as its candidate against Scindia in Guna-Shivpuri, not a staunch Congressman, in order to underline Scindia’s political promiscuity, but a leader who had himself recently crossed over from the BJP. The Lok Sabha contest in Guna is between Scindia, who left Congress for BJP, and Rao Yadvendra Singh Yadav, who came to the Congress from BJP.

Vijayvargiya turns to caste to explain this: “The Yadav samaj (community) has a sizeable vote here, and they are angry with the BJP because Scindia got the BJP ticket by cutting the claim of KP Yadav, who had defeated Scindia in 2019”. Consider this too: KP Yadav was a loyalist in the Scindia camp who migrated to the BJP.

The Congress reliance on contingent caste math in Guna — in a state where there are no pan-state dominant OBC/SC groups, and party affiliation trumps caste arithmetic — also points to its disregard in Guna and elsewhere in MP for a more thoughtful and long-term narrative to take on the entrenched domination of the BJP.

In the Vidhan Sabha election in 2023, it sought to fight the BJP by trying to match and outdo its cash transfers in rupees. In this election, Rahul Gandhi’s attempts to stake out larger positions nationally — be it on the caste census or on “X-ray,” and “survey” — find only faint echoes on the MP ground, primarily because of the failure of his own party to spread the message. His Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra has hardly made an enduring dent in this Congress inactivity.

Ironically, this is after Rahul’s yatras drew crowds, forcing even the BJP to sit up and take notice. In the recently renovated and still expanding Mahakaleshwar complex in Ujjain, where devotees can scan QR codes to read the stories of Lord Shiva depicted in the sculptures on the temple walls, and e-carts zig zag silently, Vibhash Upadhyay, former head of Jan Abhiyan Parishad in the Shivraj Chouhan government, now looking after a Vidhan Sabha constituency for the BJP, says “We did a survey to see if Rahul’s rallies have made a difference. He attracted large crowds but the Vidhan Sabha results did not reflect it. Congress could not encash it”. He has not seen such a “neeras and thanda chunav (colourless election)”, he says, since the 1970s.

The Congress failure to give the arduous fightback its all, to establish a strong and sharp narrative, or even to bring together its INDIA allies as a show of strength in MP, is especially striking in the coaching centre and college. Here, the restlessness of the young is vivid, as is the yearning for change, but Congress looks like an inchoate alternative.

Young and first-time voters talk about dwindling job prospects in a state with little job creation in the private sector, where examinations are chronically delayed for the limited number of government “vacancies”. As access to education spreads and deepens among backward groups, in a scenario of competition and uncertainty, reservation has become an issue that divides not just the upper castes from the backward. In MP, it also ranges the SC/ST against the OBC. This is because in a state with much higher SC and ST populations, and with the 50 per cent quota limit in place, OBCs get 13 per cent, not the 27 per cent fixed nationally.

In Ujjain, in a private library off Dussehra Maidan, Lakshmi Jat, who is preparing for the sub-inspector exam, says: “I think the BJP has done all the right things, except for the young. Exams are delayed, there is berozgaari…”

“Rahul’s motto is not clear, he just says what is wrong with the BJP”, says Hemlata Kataria. Shruti Patidar says that “he talks of the right to apprenticeship” but, she says, while she agrees with Rahul, she does not “trust” him.

“There should be change, there should be no permanent majorities”, says Rajat Yadav. “I am preparing to be a geologist, the notification came in 2023, the exam is scheduled for 2024 December, but I know it will be shifted to 2025… I want change, but am not sure which party… I could also press NOTA”.

“At some point, we do need change”, says Arpan Chaudhary, “otherwise there will be manmaani (lack of accountability). But for now, we need to take India to the position of the third largest economy, we need not a coalition government but stability”.

Even as support for a Rahul-led Congress is hesitant and formless, on the other side, support for the Modi government is confident and pointed. Jobs are a problem, some say, but they count out the Modi government’s achievements on “bigger” things. Others say that “badlav” or change is something for the Modi government itself to bring.

In a classroom in the privately owned Gandhi Vocational College in Guna, Ishita Yadav says: “I am preparing for an SI exam, the last vacancy came in 2017…. We (OBCs) don’t get the reservation that is our due… I am looking for change, not at Rahul”, she says. “I don’t want change”, says Vishal Mehta, “because India is doing well on foreign policy”. “Congress favours Muslims”, says Uday Yadav. “It was against the building of the Ram mandir”.

“Mere Rajasthan mein har paanch saal government change hoti hai (the government changes every five years in my state of Rajasthan)”, says Debesh Jatav. “Maana ki Rahul ko pappu bana diya, par ek aadmi ko bhagwan bona doge? (OK, you labelled Rahul as incompetent but is it alright to deify one leader?” While Rajeshwari Pathak of Government PG College says: “I want modifications in the reservation policy, SC/STs should not take away the quota (from OBCs). But I will vote for the BJP, because it is bringing change in the country.”

In the tribal area and the Dalit basti, the BJP’s slogan of “400 paar” has sparked fears about an impending change in the constitution — but in both erstwhile Congress bastions, inroads have also been made by the BJP.

In village Gola in Jhabua block, a group of young men talks about rising prices and how palayan (outmigration) has changed over the years — the young who set out for other states are better educated and they end up with lesser jobs now, mostly daily wage labour. “If BJP comes with 400-plus, it will all be ek-tarafa (one sided), the constitution will be changed according to its will”, says Jhanjhu Katara, a student. Arvind Kejriwal should not have been arrested, he says, because “a strong Opposition is necessary”. But, “Modi government has destroyed terrorism, other countries dare not challenge India now… plus anaaj mil raha hai free mein (there are free rations)”.

In the Dalit-dominated Bhullanpura locality of Guna, Raj Jatav says: “For 10 years, the BJP MP won in Modi’s name and did nothing. All layers of government are dominated by the BJP… this time we need to give someone else a chance’’. But Deepchand Salawat, a contractor, says: “I may not be getting the Modi government’s schemes, but others are benefiting”. And if the BJP changes the Constitution, says Mohan Prasad, “phir aandolan karenge (then we will see)”.

Its task in MP is daunting, but more than its own campaign, more than its organisational planning or national leadership, Congress in MP may be setting store by the dwindling turnout to narrow down the BJP’s victory margins, if not to win. In Jhabua town, Kantilal Bhuria, Congress veteran, is the candidate in this election, his son Vikrant Bhuria is an MLA from this tribal seat. “It was different earlier, now people have seen the reality”, says Kantilal. Vikrant says that “Whenever the vote percentage decreases, the Congress benefits”.

For a challenger to bank on voters not turning up also tells a Congress story.